OMAHA (DTN) -- The outlook for the global potash (K) fertilizer market is much more positive compared to the nitrogen and phosphorus outlooks for 2026. Global potash supplies are expected to continue to be high and might even increase. Affordability is optimistic, unlike the other major nutrients, and this is expected to continue into the new year.

While the potash outlook is mostly positive, there are potential clouds on the horizon. At the top of that list are various geopolitical issues occurring internationally.

IFA: GLOBAL FERTILIZER USE RECOVERING

Global fertilizer use recovered in 2024, reaching a new record, according to the International Fertilizer Association's (IFA) Public Summary Medium- Term Outlook 2025-2029 report: https://www.fertilizer.org/…. The report was released in 2025 and covers "fertilizer years," which run from January of one year to January of the next year for some countries but run from midyear to midyear for other countries.

Fertilizer use (nitrogen, phosphorus, potash) increased 4.5% to 198 million metric tons (mmt) of nutrients in 2023 and was projected to rise another 4.4%, reaching 206 mmt in 2024. This marks a 17-mmt increase from the low of 189 mmt in 2022 and 4 mmt above the previous record demand of 202 mmt set in 2020.

Increases in global fertilizer usage are expected to be seen between 2025 and 2029, though at a slower pace than the past two years, according to IFA. With an annual growth rate projected between 1% and 2%, total use is forecast to be 224 mmt by 2029, an increase of 18 mmt compared to 2024.

These increases came on the heels of significant contractions in global fertilizer usage in 2021 and 2022 due to high prices. The recovery in nutrient use was largely driven by a sharp decline in prices from their peaks in mid-2022.

K SUPPLY FORECAST TO BE OPTIMISTIC

The supply forecast for potash fertilizers continues to be positive, according to IFA.

Global Muriate of Potash (MOP) fertilizer production is estimated to have increased by 10% to 76.6 mmt in 2024, a record high. These production increases were driving by Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) countries, namely Russia and Belarus, facilitated by newly established trade routes in response to sanctions.

Additional, potash production in Canada and Laos increased by 8% and 20% respectively compared to 2023, according to IFA data.

"In line with rising output, MOP trade continued to grow in 2024, increasing by 10% to 59.9 mmt, the highest volume on record," the IFA report said. "This growth was largely fueled by the recovering demand in East Asia and Latin America, following a sharp decline in 2022 due to poor affordability."

Global potash capacity is projected to increase by 20% between 2024 and 2029, reaching 77.4 mmt globally. IFA reports Canada, Russia and Laos are expected to be the primary contributors to this growth.

Smaller capacity expansions are also anticipated in Spain, the Republic of Congo and Thailand.

Potash capability -- the ability to mine, process, and supply the mineral -- is projected to rise from 53.8 mmt in 2024 to 59.8 mmt in 2029, an 11% increase, according to IFA. North America and EECA are expected to lead this expansion. Large-scale projects in Canada and multiple planned capacity expansions by existing producers in Russia and Laos will be the primary drivers.

IFA reports the potash balance between supply and demand is expected to remain well balanced during the next five years after being relatively tight before 2023. The theoretically available surplus is projected to remain relatively stable, at 14% of supply capability in 2029, compared to 13% in 2024.

K AFFORDABILITY REMAINS POSITIVE

Samuel Taylor, Rabobank Research analyst, Farm Inputs, told DTN potash is extremely affordable when you factor fertilizer prices and commodity prices. This is the complete opposite when compared to nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer, he said.

The biggest difference in the potash market compared to the others is the fact this market is well-supplied globally. While there are certainly issues around the world, these questions are not affecting potash supply like they are affecting the other two nutrients.

"Issues like the war in the Black Sea region never really seemed to affect the global supply of potash," Taylor said.

Despite this, there continues to be uneasiness with global conflicts. But there almost seems like a status quo in the market regarding various military conflicts, he said.

Josh Linville, StoneX vice-president of fertilizer, said the potash market continues to be well-supplied internationally.

The major players in the potash-producing market continue to pump potash onto the world market. Most of the potash in the world is produced by Canada, Belarus and Russia.

Many in the fertilizer industry thought a Russia-Ukraine war would significantly affect the supply out of the Black Sea region. Several years into this conflict, the tons continue to come from this region of the world, Linville noted.

CANADA SUPPLIES GLOBAL K MARKET

Increased Canadian potash production is part of the reason the global market for potash fertilizer continues to be well supplied, according to Mark Milam, senior editor, Fertilizers, ICIS. Canada is the world's largest potash producer and exporter in the world, producing an estimated 21.9 mmt in 2023.

This production is expected to continue into 2026.

"I remember someone saying Canada could supply the world (with potash fertilizer), and after Black Sea supply issues ... certainly this looks to be the case," Milam said.

We could see some expansion in potash production in Canada in the future, he added.

Justin Rackleff, the principal analyst leading North American fertilizer analysis for London-based CRU, said the global potash market has a comfortable supply right now, but some have wondered if the market could slip into an oversupplied situation.

One possible scenario where this might occur would be if the Russia-Ukraine conflict is settled and the U.S. drops its sanctions on Belarus. Under these circumstances, this would likely lead to more potash supply coming from the Black Sea region and a potential potash oversupply.

Rackleff said it is difficult to know what will happen in the future in a part of the world that is extremely unstable. Peace could lead to more potash supply, but on the other end of the spectrum, expansion of war could have a negative effect on the supply from this location, he said.

K PRICES APPEAR TO BE STEADY IN 2026

The 2026 price outlook for potash fertilizer appears to be steady to the current price level at the end of 2025, according to fertilizer analysts.

Taylor said his price outlook for potash is fairly flat, with some price bias to the upside in the new year.

Demand globally for potash fertilizer remains strong. This is being led by exporting countries such as Brazil and India, he said.

Linville said he believes potash fertilizer prices in 2026 will most likely be in line where we have seen prices be in 2025. Prices will be steady into the New Year, Taylor predicted.

There are, however, potential issues that could arise in 2026 and this could change the price outlook.

"If the Russia-Ukraine war doesn't end and maybe gets worse, this would be negative for fertilizer prices," Linville cautioned.

WEATHER, AID AFFECT US K OUTLOOK

Milam believes potash prices will be affected by many different factors in the New Year. U.S. weather tops the list.

Winter came somewhat early in November so there are some questions about how much potash was applied in the fall application season. If limited applications occurred in the fall, application will be pushed into the busy spring fieldwork season, he said.

"A normal spring would go a long way to keeping potash prices non-volatile," Milam said.

It appears world potash prices have a steady outlook, Milam said.

Rackleff also thinks the price outlook for potash in 2026 appears to be steady. Global supplies of the nutrient are stable, which leads to his price outlook, he said.

A factor that could have some effect on the outlook of all fertilizers in 2026 in the U.S. $12 billion agricultural aid package which the Trump Administration recently announced, he said.

This could increase fertilizer demand at a time many U.S. farmers were considering or already cutting back on fertilizer applications because of affordability issues. While potash is more affordable compared to the other two nutrients, it is normally applied with phosphorus, so some potash applications could be cut.

The details of the aid will be a factor in farmers deciding on whether to increase fertilizer applications in 2026, Rackleff said.

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Editor's Note: This is the third and final story in DTN's special Global Fertilizer Outlook series.

See the other series stories:

-- Global Fertilizer Outlook - 1, "2026 Nitrogen Prices Will Be Determined by Several Global Factors, Including N Supply," https://www.dtnpf.com/… .

-- Global Fertilizer Outlook - 2, " Less Chinese Phosphorus Exports, Continuing Countervailing Duties Affect P 2026 Outlook," https://www.dtnpf.com/….

To see DTN's weekly column on Retail Fertilizer Trends, check out https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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